Movie Guy’s Oscar Predictions

TCL’s Movie Guy Paul McGuire Grimes makes his predictions on the 90th annual Academy Awards.

And the nominees are…


1. Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water
2. Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
3. Margot Robbie, I,Tonya
4. Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
5. Meryl Streep, The Post

Frances McDormand gives a stirring and powerful performance as a grieving mother looking for answers in her daughter’s death. Much like Gary Oldman, she’s won every acting award so far leading up to the Oscars. Plus, McDormand is loud, outspoken, and doesn’t play by the rules.

WILL WIN: Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
DARK HORSE: Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water


1. Mary J. Blige, Mudbound
2. Allison Janney, I, Tonya
3. Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread
4. Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
5. Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water

This category comes down to the two dysfunctional mother roles played by Allison Janney (I, Tonya) and Laurie Metcalf (Lady Bird). Metcalf’s mother is the grounded, often misguided one in her choices. Janney gives the “showier” performance playing the mother from hell to Tonya Harding. She’s vicious, vile, and like Sam Rockwell’s character, you absolutely despise everything about her.

WILL WIN: Allison Janney, I, Tonya
DARK HORSE: Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird


1. Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water
2. Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird
3. Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread
4. Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk
5. Jordan Peele, Get Out

Guillermo del Toro seems like the clear frontrunner at this point. He won the Director’s Guild of America award and is widely admired by his colleagues. His film The Shape of Water represents his love of the creature features of Old Hollywood and leads the night with the most nominations.

WILL WIN: Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water
DARK HORSE: Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk


1. Call Me By Your Name
2. Darkest Hour
3. Dunkirk
4. Get Out
5. Lady Bird
6. Phantom Thread
7. The Post
8. The Shape of Water
9. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

It’s the toughest race to call, as it’s a three-way tie at this point between Get Out, The Shape of Water, and Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri. All three are vastly different films and have all been in the lead in early polls. The Shape of Water won the Producer’s Guild Award, which is usually a strong indicator. Three Billboards packs a punch but has been very divisive with audiences. In recent years the Academy likes throwing out a few surprise choices and has chosen films, like Spotlight and Moonlight, that emotionally resonate with audiences and represent the state of the world we’re living in. I think we’re going to see that trend continue to happen with Get Out ultimately being the winner. It became a huge surprise hit given Jordan Peele’s unique approach to telling its themes of racism.

DARK HORSE: The Shape of Water

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